With the loss to Windsor today, the Seattle Thunderbirds at 0-2 are down but not out. Here are the possibilities moving forward:
Erie defeats Saint John on Monday. Seattle defeats Saint John on Tuesday. Saint John out, Seattle to semi-final.
Erie defeats Saint John on Monday. Saint John defeats Seattle on Tuesday. Seattle out, Saint John to semi-final.
Saint John defeats Erie on Monday. Seattle defeats Saint John on Tuesday. Windsor defeats Erie on Wednesday. 3 teams end up 1-2 and then a whole bunch of math gets involved. (See below.)
Saint John defeats Erie on Monday. Seattle defeats Saint John on Tuesday. Erie defeats Windsor on Wednesday. Seattle and Saint John play tiebreaker on Thursday. Winner to semi-final, loser out.
Saint John defeats Erie on Monday. Saint John defeats Seattle on Tuesday. Seattle out, Saint John to semi-final.
There is no path to a game beyond Tuesday without Seattle defeating Saint John. It’s a literal do or die game.
So here’s that math we were talking about. I put it down here so people wouldn’t fall asleep in the middle of the post. Here is the tie-breaking format for three teams:
(i) In the event three teams should tie for the final playoff place position, at the conclusion of the single round robin series of games, the game each team played against the first place team shall be removed from their records. The tie breaking formula shall be as follows: Add each team’s goals for with their goals against which sum you divide into such team’s goals for. The team with the highest percentage gains the higher position in the standings and an automatic berth as home team in the semi-final game. The remaining two teams shall play a sudden-death game with the winner to advance to the semi-final game. The home team in the sudden-death game will be the team that won the round robin game between the two teams.
(ii) In the event that after using the above mathematical exercise all three teams should still remain tied, the game each team played against the first place team shall be added to their records. The same formula from 2 (i) will be applied to finalize the rankings of the three teams.
This may work in the TBirds favor as the game against Windsor won’t figure into these calculations. So a large win vs the Sea Dogs will help Seattle. You would also want Saint John to defeat Erie in a very low-scoring game. If nothing else, if you have to play in the tie-breaker, having last change may just be the advantage you need to move on. A large Seattle win on Tuesday goes a long way to that.