Frequent stat submitter Jon Whiting has put together some numbers looking at what remains on the schedule for Everett, Portland and Seattle this season.

Before we get into the numbers, however, a quick look at the standings:

US1 Everett 34-16-3-2 73pts
US2 Portland 31-20-1-3 66pts
US3 Seattle 28-20-3-3 62pts
US4/WC1 Spokane 26-24-3-1 56pts
US5/WC2 Tri-City 26-26-0-3 55pts

As you can see, despite some of the gaps between teams, no position is safe. So let’s dig a little deeper into what the last month or so holds for those top 3 teams. (All numbers that follow, unless otherwise specified, were submitted by Jon.)

Everett has 17 games remaining. Listed below are opponents, how many more times they play and the opponents current winning percentage:

Kelowna 1 .800
Calgary 1 .639
Portland 1 .600
Victoria 2 .593
Seattle 4 .574
Spokane 2 .519
Tri-City 2 .500
Vancouver 2 .445
Prince George 1 .404
Lethbridge 1 .352

Here’s where the math comes in. If you multiply the number of games remaining vs each opponent by the winning percentage of that opponent, you get the weighted winning percentage.

Seattle 2.296
Victoria 1.186
Spokane 1.038
Tri-City 1.000
Vancouver .890
Kelowna .800
Calgary .639
Portland .600
Prince George .404
Lethbridge .352

Now add all of those together and then divide by the number of total games remaining and you get the strength of the rest of their schedule. In Everett’s case, it is .541

Portland has 17 games remaining:

Everett 1 .664
Calgary 1 .639
Seattle 3 .574
Spokane 3 .519
Tri-City 6 .500
Vancouver 1 .445
Prince George 1 .404
Lethbridge 1 .352

Weighted winning percentage:

Tri-City 3.000
Seattle 1.722
Spokane 1.557
Everett .664
Calgary .639
Vancouver .445
Prince George .404
Lethbridge .352

Strength of remaining schedule: .517

Seattle has 18 games remaining:

Kelowna 1 .800
Everett 4 .664
Calgary 1 .639
Portland 3 .600
Victoria 3 .593
Spokane 1 .519
Tri-City 1 .500
Kamloops 2 .429
Prince George 1 .404
Lethbridge 1 .352

Weighted winning percentage:

Everett 2.656
Portland 1.800
Victoria 1.779
Kamloops .858
Kelowna .800
Calgary .639
Spokane .519
Tri-City .500
Prince George .404
Lethbridge .352

Strength of remaining schedule: .573

Jon has predicted how many points each team will earn from their remaining games.

Everett

Seattle 4
Victoria 2
Spokane 2
Tri-City 4
Vancouver 2
Kelowna 0
Calgary 2
Portland 2
Prince George 2
Lethbridge 2
Total 22 points

Portland

Tri-City 8
Seattle 3
Spokane 4
Everett 0
Calgary 2
Vancouver 2
Prince George 2
Lethbridge 2
Total 23 points

Seattle

Everett 4
Portland 3
Victoria 3
Kamloops 2
Kelowna 0
Calgary 2
Spokane 0
Tri-City 2
Prince George 2
Lethbridge 2
Total 20 points

Tidbits analysis and opinion:
If we take those point predictions and apply them to the standings, this is the result:

Everett current 73 projected 95
Portland current 66 projected 89
Seattle current 62 projected 82

No change in position. It would set up a Portland vs Seattle first-round matchup with the Winterhawks having home-ice advantage.

Seattle is in the best position to make a move. Despite only half of their games left being in the division, 7 of those 9 games are against the teams that are ahead of them. If they are going to make a move, those are the ones they absolutely have to win.